NFL Clutch QB Index Week 11 Aaron Rodgers moves up Dak Prescott slides after thriller at Lambeau

NFL Clutch QB Index Week 11 Aaron Rodgers moves up Dak Prescott slides after thriller at Lambeau

Nothing is much more gripping in sports than a late do-or-die drive with the game on the line. My eyes are usually glued to the screen when one play can be the difference between a win and a lo s.Sometimes one throw can also be the difference in a legacy. Think ofnear-impo sible deep ball toin the'XLVI win over the, oroverthrowinglate in the' Super Bowl LIV lo s to the.We've seen a ton of clutch opportunities in 2022, a year where theis collectively on pace to break single-season records for close games and game-winning drives.There aren't a ton of numbers to support clutch debates, though. Game-winning drives is a fascinating stat, but has serious limitations. It's actually po sible to be credited with a game-winning drive with nothing but a kneel down. And, of course, if your defense gets stops at the end of the game, it's more likely to hold a lead, and therefore increases the likelihood of its quarterback recording a game-winning drive. With that in mind, I introduce the Clutch QB Index. I'm not tackling the all-time clutch QB debate, which often comes down to championships in people's minds. Instead, I seek to answer who is the most clutch QB in the NFL right now based on what they've done in their careers, and what they've done lately.1. QB conversion rate on game-tying/go-ahead drive chances in fourth quarter/OT. (How often does a QB succe sfully bring his team down the field to tie or take the lead?)2. Pa ser rating in fourth quarter/OT of one-po se sion game. (How well does a QB play in crunch time?) Both components are split by career, playoff and 2022 performance and weighted equally. Again, one thing these rankings don't include is championships, so you can save your"seven rings" argument. More on that later.The rankings are based on all current qualified starting QBs, which is why you'll only notice 30 QBs (and Travis Hamonic Jersey don't qualify yet). Aaron Rodgers climbed four spots in the rankings after Green Bay's 14-point fourth-quarter comeback against the Cowboys. He went 7 of 9 for 102 yards and two touchdown pa ses in the fourth quarter and overtime as the Packers converted on 2 of 3 drives with a chance to tie or take the lead, late.Matt Ryan debuts at No. 6 in the rankings after he got his starting job back. He did so in style with the longest run of his career (39 yards) to set up the game-winning touchdown pa s to Parris Campbell. He's had his struggles this year, but not in clutch time. Matty Ice leads the NFL with four go-ahead touchdown pa ses in the fourth quarter this year and his pa ser rating in the fourth quarter/OT of a one-score game is 118.7, fourth in the NFL.Kirk Cousins' excellent season in the clutch continued with a miraculous win in Buffalo in Week 10, helping Minnesota complete a 17-point comeback. The Vikings have tied an NFL record by winning seven straight games, all decided by one po se sion, thanks in part to Cousins' play. He has Justin Jefferson to thank too, but he did drop a perfect 24-yard pa s to Jefferson in overtime on Sunday to set up Minnesota's game-winning field goal.Jimmy Garoppolo moved up eight spots in the rankings after making some big throws on Sunday Night Football against the Chargers. He was 4-for-4 pa sing for three first downs on third-and-long in the fourth quarter, with a few of those extending the 49ers' game-winning drive.Dak Prescott got his first crack in the clutch this season and it didn't go well as Dallas lost for the first time in franchise history when leading by 14+ points entering the fourth quarter (entered game 195-0 in those situations, including playoffs). Dallas went three-and-out with the game tied at 28 during the two-minute drill. They got the ball first in overtime but their drive stalled at Green Bay's 35 with Dak Prescott mi sing an opportunity to get the ball to CeeDee Lamb on fourth-and-three.Josh Allen had three turnovers in the fourth quarter and OT of Buffalo's lo s to the Vikings on Sunday. He stands pat in the rankings on a technicality. His end-zone Int with Buffalo up 10 points in the fourth quarter was not in a one-score game and his fumble at the one didn't impact his pa ser rating late in games. He also led a field goal drive with 41 seconds left to force overtime, although you can't make any excuses for his bad interception that ended the game.Week 10 was more of the same for Ru sell Wilson and the Broncos, who failed to put up points with three chances to tie or take the lead in the fourth quarter in Tenne see. Wilson took four sacks in the final period and threw a bad interception to end the game deep in Titans' territory. He falls eight spots in the rankingsJustin Herbert fell eight spots too after he couldn't get the Chargers sluggish offense moving late against the 49ers, as they scored 0 points in the second half and went 0-for-3 on game-tying/go-ahead drive opportunities in the fourth quarter. Herbert threw an interception to end the game with Brett Kulak Jersey the Chargers in desperation mode.Justin Fields followed the same script in his last two games, delivering an electrifying performance with a dud of a finish. I'll give him a break against Miami as Equanimeous St. Brown dropped a pa s on fourth down that would have extended the potential game-tying/go-ahead drive. The one-point lo s to the Lions falls more on Fields' shoulders as he took two sacks on the final drive. Finishing games and holding onto the ball too long are two improvements Fields can make as he emerges as a star quarterback.Week 11 Clutch QB Index1 Miami Dolphins QB Tua leads the NFL in pa ser rating this season but that's only where it starts. He has converted on 11 of 14 career game-tying/go-ahead drive chances in the fourth quarter/OT and his career pa ser rating in the fourth quarter/OT of a one-score game is 125.4. Both are the best career numbers of any current starting QB. He's backed up the numbers with big plays late in victories over the Bills and Ravens this season.2 Kansas City Chiefs QB Mahomes' conversion rate on game-tying/go-ahead drives in the fourth quarter/OT is second-best in the regular season and the best in the postseason. He's on another level. Even though his heroics won the Chiefs the game in Week 9, he's not first in the rankings because he has a 73 pa ser rating in late, close situations this year resulting from costly picks late in lo ses to theand Bills. Plus, Tagovailoa's career numbers have been amazing.3 New York Jets QB Wilson ranking third here is frankly shocking after seeing him throw three awful interceptions against the Patriots in Week 8. None were in the fourth-quarter of a one-score game though and he has an extremely small sample size, both this season and for his career. He might have a chance to somewhat legitimize his rank in a grudge match with the Patriots on Sunday. (+1)4 Green Bay Packers QB Rodgers doesn't get the clutch credit quite like Brady because of his one ring, but his career conversion rates in the regular season (42%) and playoffs (56%) are both virtually identical to Brady's. Look no further than late playoff drives against the Cardinals and Cowboys to see why. Things are looking up in 2022 with Rodgers' newfound connection with rookie Christian Watson. (+4)5 Buffalo Bills QB Allen ranks sixth in conversion rate on game-tying/go-ahead drives in his career (43%) but has had a mixed performance in the clutch this season. He led late game-winning drives in Baltimore and Kansas City earlier this year, but fell short in the last two weeks against the Jets and Vikings, including two bad interceptions thrown into the end zone against Minnesota.6 Indianapolis Colts QB Matty Ice has been one of clutchest QBs in the league this season despite an overall down year and now sits one game-winning drive from tying Dan Marino for the fifth-most all-time.7 Minnesota Vikings QB Cousins career ranks are middling but overlook his poor reputation in primetime as he's stepped up in the clutch this year. He is 7-for-9 on game-tying/go-ahead drives in the fourth quarter/overtime this season, the best conversion rate of any QB in the league with at least five chances. His pa ser rating in late, close situations this year is over 100.8 Cincinnati Bengals QB He lived up to the nickname "Joe Cool" with huge comebacks capped by game-winning drives in both wins against the Chiefs and "Mr. Clutch" Patrick Mahomes last season. Burrow ranks near or in the top 10 acro s the board. He padded his numbers recently with a go-ahead touchdown pa s to Ja'Marr Chase vs the Saints in Week 6. He only moves down two spots here with Matt Ryan moving into the rankings and Rodgers moving up.(-2)9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB TB12 is arguably the clutchest QB of all-time, besides maybe Joe Montana. He ranks behind only Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers in playoff conversion rate on game-tying/go-ahead drive chances (56%). These rankings don't take Super Bowl rings into account and seek to answer the question who is the clutchest right now, and Brady's 2022 isn't doing him any favors. His stock is up though after back-to-back wins.10 San Francisco 49ers QB Garoppolo landing one spot behind Tom Brady here feels like a crime. Garoppolo's career pa ser rating in late, close games ranks third behind Tua Tagovailoa and Patrick Mahomes. He's also been better in the clutch this year in a limited capacity, such as Sunday's comeback against the Chargers. Still, the playoff gap is as wide as the grand canyon. The perception of Garoppolo won't change until he performs in the playoffs after the 49ers blew double-digit fourth-quarter leads to the Chiefs in Super Johnny Gaudreau Women Jersey Bowl LIV and Rams in the 2021 NFC Championship game. Garoppolo and Brady meet for the first time in Week 14, perhaps they can settle this score (and some others) then. (+8)11 Dallas Cowboys QB Dak came up empty in his first chance in the clutch this season, failing to lead Dallas on go-ahead drives late in Green Bay. He's 11th in the standings based on the small sample this season, but ranks top seven acro s the board in career rankings here, including a career pa ser rating above 100 in late, close situations. (-9)12 Baltimore Ravens QB Jackson has the fourth-best conversion rate on game-tying/go-ahead drive chances in his career (49%). Last year's comeback against the Colts is a reminder that he can absolutely beat you with his arm late in games. He just hasn't gotten it going this year yet, throwing critical interceptions late in lo ses to the Bills and Giants. (+1)13 Los Angeles Rams QB Similar to Ru sell Wilson, Stafford is always on the top of the game-winning drives lists and his career conversion rates are near league average. We saw what he could do last postseason though which has him flirting with the top 10 here. (+2)14 Las Vegas Raiders QB Carr's career is full of thrilling late comebacks. His career conversion rate on game-tying/go-ahead drives (41%) is actually identical to Tom Brady's. He has fallen flat this year though, leading the Raiders to game-tying/go-ahead drives on just 2-14 chances in the fourth quarter or OT as the Raiders have an 0-6 record in one-score games after going 7-2 last year. (-2)15 New York Giants QB Jones is the reason you can't use GW drives alone to determine a player's clutchne s. Earlier this year he set a record for the most GW drives (five) through seven games of a season in NFL history. But, his pa ser rating is 59.1 in the fourth quarter of one-score games this year. He hasn't made challenging throws in the clutch either. His 10 completions on five GW drives have traveled a grand total of 25 air yards. (+2)16 Atlanta Falcons QB Mariota's career conversion rate (40%) on game-tying/go-ahead drive chances ranks 13th among current starters just behind Tom Brady. Once upon a time he led a miraculous playoff comeback win in Kansas City. He's also converted on 6 of 12 clutch drives this year. (-2)17 Philadelphia Eagles QB Week 10 against the Commanders was one of Hurts' few chances to shine in the clutch this season, but you can take that game with a grain of salt after fourth-quarter fumbles from Dallas Goedert and Quez Watkins. The fact that he delivered an on-target deep ball to Watkins prior to his fumble is a positive sign going forward. (+4)18 Los Angeles Chargers QB Herbert moved up five spots last week after two clutch drives against the Falcons but dropped eight spots in this edition after falling flat in San Francisco. His career conversion rate (44%) late in games is fifth in the NFL but he's 12th this season and his pa ser rating in the fourth quarter/OT of a one-score game is just 65.4 in 2022, 19th in the league. (-8)19 Denver Broncos QB Wilson has among the most game-winning drives in the league since entering the NFL in 2012, but ranks middle-of- Brett Kulak Men Jersey the-pack in career conversion rate on game-tying/go-ahead drives. He's falling in the standings based on this year's production, ranking 22nd in both pa ser rating and game-tying/go-ahead conversion rates late in games. He's converted on just 4 of 19 game-tying/go-ahead drive chances late and has thrown crucial interceptions late against the Colts and Titans. (-8)20 Tenne see Titans QB Tannehill's career ranks are near league average but he's 0-5 in the playoffs with a chance to tie or take the lead late, including last year's playoff lo s to the Bengals. (-1)21 Seattle Seahawks QB Geno's career revival hasn't translated into many clutch opportunities this year, but if he keeps performing like he did late in a Week 8 win vs the Giants, he'll be moving up the rankings (-1)22 New Orleans Saints QB Dalton's career numbers are below average but he ranks middle-of-the-pack here after succe sfully converting on 3 of 6 game-tying/go-ahead drive chances in the fourth-quarter/OT this year. He fell short in Pittsburgh on Sunday, although his interception with New Orleans down three in the fourth quarter was off Jarvis Landry's hands. (-6)23 Detroit Lions QB Goff's career ranks are near the bottom of the league and he's 1-7 with a chance to tie or take the lead late for the Lions this year.24 New England Patriots QB Jones' career numbers are league average, but he's fallen short in his only two chances to tie or take the lead late this season. He threw an ill-advised pick into the end zone against the Ravens in Week 3 off his back foot, one reason he finds himself in the bottom 10. (+1)25 Washington Commanders QB Heinicke debuts at No. 25 in the rankings as he's keeping the Commanders' starting QB job with Carson Wentz healthy enough to return. He's had his moments in the clutch this year, like an improbable comeback against the Colts, but his fourth-quarter interception into double coverage against the Eagles could have easily cost Washington the game. He has the second-worst career conversion rate (26 Noah Hanifin Men Jersey %) on game-tying/go-ahead drive chances late in games, ahead of only Davis Mills.26 Arizona Cardinals QB Murray ranks near the bottom in most of the criteria and our last memory of him in clutch time is his slide and spike gaffe against the Eagles (+1)27 Cleveland Browns QB Bri sett may have had a GW drive vs the Ravens in Week 6 had Amari Cooper not got called for OPI on a late TD. Still, Bri sett's numbers fall short acro s the board here.28 Chicago Bears QB He may be emerging as a star quarterback, but has yet to make an impact in the clutch, including Sunday's lo s to the Lions. The Bears are 4 of 16 on game-tying/go-ahead drive conversions in the fourth quarter and overtime this year. That number could be better if Darnell Mooney catches the game-winning touchdown against the Commanders, and if Equanimeous St. Brown doesn't drop a fourth-down pa s late against the Dolphins. (-4)29 Houston Texans QB Mills has converted on just 1-17 game-tying/go-ahead chances late for the Texans in his career. His pa ser rating late in games is above 80 which is the only reason he's not in last place here. Trevor Lawrence's is 56.7, easily last in that category30 Jacksonville Jaguars QB Lawrence has yet to find his footing late in games. He's led the Jaguars down the field to tie or take the lead on just 28% of his career opportunities, third-worst in the league. As mentioned above, he has the worst pa ser rating in late, close situations in his career
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